Baseball betting free picks every day at Oddsbay.com!  Up today, we’ve got a pair of National League division leaders go head to head as the Cincinnati Reds host the Atlanta Braves.

ATLANTA BRAVES (MEDLEN) AT CINCINNATI REDS (CUETO) 4:10 PM PACIFIC

Neither team has been exactly dominant in July, but as the month draws to a close both are in first place in their respective divisions.  The Atlanta Braves have a 2.5 game advantage in the National League East over a hard charging Philadelphia Phillies team that’s won 8 of 10.  Cincinnati has been fighting tooth and nail with the St. Louis Cardinals all season atop the NL Central and the Reds currently hold a ½ game lead.

Atlanta has improved their road play throughout the season, but they’re still a substandard 24-30 -7.6 units away from Turner Field.  The Reds have been a strong home team in 2010 with a 31-22 record at the Great American Ballpark for +4.8 units of profit.  In head to head play, the Reds have won 6 of the last 9 meetings at home for +4.1 units of profit.  This is the first meeting between the two teams this year in Cincy, though the Braves took a pair of contests at Turner Field earlier this season.

Kris Medlen has been a very solid starter for the Braves this year—he’s got a 3.74 ERA overall but more impressively Atlanta has won 11 of his 12 starts.  The Reds will counter with one of our favorite young pitchers, Johnny Cueto.  Cueto is still ‘under the radar’ with the general public but he’s very good—he’s got a 3.18 ERA and Cincy has won 13 of his 20 starts this year.  He’s been in very good form of late, with only 3 ER in his last three starts for a 1.29 ERA in that stretch.

Braves have lost 4 of their last 6 games, all on the road and all against weaker opponents (Florida and Washington).  They’re taking a step up in class here, and with the Reds a strong home team and the talented Cueto on the hill we’ll back Cincinnati as a home favorite.

PLAY CINCINNATI REDS (CUETO) -140 OVER ATLANTA BRAVES

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