NFL Betting Free Picks: Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

Oddsbay’s handicapping team is ready for NFL regular season betting, and today we’ve got a play in Sunday’s action between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons.  Check back every day for more football action!

ATLANTA FALCONS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS—SEPTEMBER 12, 10 AM PACIFIC

The Pittsburgh Steelers haven’t been a regular season home underdog since 2004, but they’ll be back in that unfamiliar role to start the 2010 NFL campaign hosting the Atlanta Falcons.  The reason for the price is obvious—the Steelers will be without their starting quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger and linesmakers have factored that into the pointspread.  The Steelers won both of their 2004 spots as home underdogs outright, and we think they’ll do the same thing here.

The line on this game opened with Pittsburgh a +2’ point home dog, and that line is still available at a number of sportsbooks.  Other books have this game at +2 or even +1, but that’s not indicative of a flood of money coming in on Pittsburgh.  Time for a football handicapping theory lesson—the number 3 is what we refer to as a ‘key number’ due to the large percentage of games that end up with a 3 point margin of victory for one team or the other.  7 is also a key number, though a less significant one, and you should also pay attention to multiples of 3 and 7, as well as prices like 10 and 13.  That being said, 3 is the most important ‘key number’ and especially in the NFL.  The exact percentage varies from year to year, but in the longterm right around 20% of all NFL games land on the key number of 3.  For that reason, a line differential between +1 and +2’ isn’t as significant as one between +3 and +3’—in the latter example, the key number clearly comes into play.

It’s doubtful that this price will go any higher than +2’ for that reason—sports betting pros often jump at the chance to take any game with a price at or just above the ‘key number’ of 3.  If it does, this is an even stronger play.  An important consideration in all sports handicapping is understanding public perception and how it influences how games are priced, and this is a clear example of that phenomenon.  The general public—or ‘squares’ in betting lingo—are focused on the Roethlisberger suspension, and the pointspread has been adjusted accordingly.  And as in most cases when a team will play without a high profile starter, the adjustment is an overcompensation relative to the missing player’s true value.

There’s an interesting phenomena that you see in all team sports when a key player is injured.  While a long term/season ending injury or suspension can be catastrophic, teams usually respond favorably to short term absences, particularly those of a definite duration.  In fact, one of my favorite betting situations is to play *on* teams missing a key starter in the short term.  Frequently, it produces very strong betting value for a couple of reasons, not the least of which is the aforementioned overcompensation in the price.  In addition, teams usually work hard to ‘pick up the slack’ for the missing player.

In Pittsburgh’s case, this concept should be especially strong.  Unlike a midseason injury, they’ve known the Roethlisberger suspension was coming and spent the entire preseason preparing to deal with it.  On the surface, it may seem like that was dealt a blow with the injury to Byron Leftwich, but that opens the door for the younger and more mobile Dennis Dixon.  Dixon is likely the Steelers’ quarterback of the future, and has received a lot of playing time in the preseason.  His teammates and coaches have a lot of confidence in Dixon, and in a roundabout way this could be a better situation for the Steelers than if the more experienced but less athletic Leftwich was at the helm.  Leftwich was clearly a temporary fix, but Dixon is a better fit in the team’s longterm plans.

Furthermore, there’s any number of questions about just how important Roethlisberger is to the Steelers’ future—immediate and longterm.  During ‘Big Ben’s’ last controversy, when he was accused of sexual assault by a Nevada hotel worker in 2009, the team rallied around their quarterback—even re-electing him as one of four team captains.  That didn’t happen this year, and for the first time since 2007 Roethlisberger was not chosen as a captain by his teammates.  At the very least, he’s got a lot of ‘fence mending’ to do.  Worst case scenario, this repeated pattern of behavior could have caused teammates to conclude that he’s not the leader they thought he was.  He’s not getting any votes of confidence from the coaching staff either—on Monday, coach Mike Tomlin refused to comment when asked if Roethlisberger would get the starting job back upon serving his suspension.  The ‘no comment’ was a dramatic change in prevailing opinion, as everything Tomlin had said until now strongly suggested that whomever started the season at quarterback was just filling the position until Roethlisberger’s return.

With or without Roethlisberger, the Steelers are still a very good team.  They return the #5 total defense from 2009, and it should be even stronger this year with Troy Polamalu and safety Aaron Smith back in the lineup.  Polamalu’s return from injury is potentially huge—he’s not only a fearsome pass rusher but the emotional leader of the defense.  Plugging him back into a defense that was #2 in sacks and #3 against the run without him could return the unit to dominance.

On offense, Dixon could make some mistakes due to inexperience but has considerable upside.  Most importantly, he’s not going to be put into a position where he has to win games on his own.  Pittsburgh has a solid rushing game to work with, led by Rashard Medenhall.  He’s not a household name among casual fans, but he’s already rated by experts as one of the top ten running backs in the NFL and his stock should rise as the season progresses.  All Dixon will be asked to do is minimize mistakes and let the running game and defense carry the load.

Finally, while Atlanta is pretty solid on offense with quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner, their defense is vulnerable.  The Steelers should have a significant size advantage ‘in the trenches’ and Dixon will have a good margin for error when he takes to the air against a Falcons secondary that ranked #28 in the NFL a year ago.  No matter what they eventually decide to do upon Roethlisberger’s return, they’ve made it a goal to go no worse than 2-2 in his absence.  With a tough road game at Tennessee next week and a home game against Baltimore on October 3, this game and the September 26 road game at Tampa Bay are essential.  Steelers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings straight up, and we look for them to open the 2010 season with a home victory here.  The general public is more worried about Roethlisberger’s absence than the Steelers are, and they’re the ones who’ll play—and win—this game.

PLAY PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2’ OVER ATLANTA FALCONS

After a big weekend of football we’re back to baseball as the San Francisco Giants take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in an important NL West series.  Oddsbay has you covered no matter the season or sport!

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS AT ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS—SEPTEMBER 6, 2010 6:40 PM PACIFIC

It’s been a crazy month or so in the NL West.  It wasn’t long ago that we were thinking the divisional race was all but over as the San Diego Padres were cruising and the rest of the NL West as treading water.  Things have changed dramatically since then—the Padres could be suffering a collapse of epic proportions.  San Diego has lost ten straight games, and their once formidable lead is down to ½ game over the San Francisco Giants.  Colorado has also entered the picture, and is now just four games back of the lead.  Even the left-for-dead LA Dodgers have an outside chance, just 8 games off the pace.  Only last place Arizona—some 21.5 games out of the lead—don’t have at least a theoretical chance of taking the divisional title.

Arizona has shown some life under interim manager Kirk Gibson, but they’re still a bad team.  There are some signs of light at the end of the tunnel, and particularly on the beleaguered pitching staff.  Daniel Hudson and today’s starter, Barry Enright, are both in their early 20’s but have already shown a lot and could be dominant pitchers within the next couple of years.   Enright has posted a 2.64 ERA in 8 starts, with a 2.64 ERA at home.  He’s been exceptional in his last three starts—allowing 3 ER in three Diamondbacks victories, with a 1.31 ERA in that stretch.  His best start was at San Francisco on 8/27, where he pitched 7 innings of 6 hit shutout ball against the Giants.

Despite that impressive showing, we’ll back the Giants here.  Their performance against Enright should improve the second time around and with Arizona’s bullpen toting the gas can (and a 5.87 ERA) no lead is safe.  The dynamics of the NL West race have changed dramatically in the past week, and a divisional title that looked out of reach a month ago is now there for the Giants to take.  They’ll start Tim Lincecum here and while he’s not having a Cy Young caliber season (3.68 ERA) he has been consistent on the road.  More importantly, the Giants have won road games when he starts—San Francisco has won 9 of Lincecum’s 13 starts away from AT&T Park.

We look for Enright to be a superstar in the next few years, but at this point we’re still talking about an Arizona team that has lost a ton of money for baseball betting enthusiasts this season (-22.5 units) and in a matchup against a team fighting for the postseason, we can’t pass up a reasonable price on the Giants.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (LINCECUM) -115 OVER ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (ENRIGHT)

College football is back and the Oddsbay handicapping team has a strong underdog play in Saturday night action between Memphis and Mississippi State.  No matter the season or the sport, Oddsbay has you covered with the best sports betting coverage anywhere!

MEMPHIS AT MISSISSIPPI STATE—4:00 PM PACIFIC

Mississippi State can be excused if their focus isn’t on this game against non-conference foe Memphis.  The Bulldogs go immediately  into their SEC slate starting on Thursday night against Auburn, which will be a huge nationally televised ESPN game.  They’ll then play at LSU and then back home against Georgia.  As a result, this game becomes more of a chore than anything else as the team looks ahead to their “real” season opener under the bright TV lights.  Second year head coach Dan Mullen facing arguably the most high profile game of his career will be content to put this win in the books, keep his starters healthy for the Auburn game and wont’ be worried about covering this big price.

Memphis will automatically be a better team this year due to their firing of Tommy West as head coach.  There may not be a less competent coach in Division I college football than West, who formerly ran the Clemson program into the ground.  West is not only a horrible coach but a generally loathsome character.  While at Clemson, he pandered to redneck racists who had issue with an African-American playing quarterback for the Tigers. That quarterback happened to be Nealon Greene, who went on to become the school’s all time leading yardage gainer and would go on to become an All Star in the CFL.  Had he been six inches taller (Greene was a relatively diminutive 5’10”), he’d have been an All Pro NFL QB—think Steve McNair with a better head for the game.  I lived in South Carolina during this era, and the persistent memory I have of Greene is him limping back to the huddle after his offensive line ran for cover, but turning a sack for a loss into a several yard rushing pickup by sheer toughness and force of will.  The only thing that kept West from being burnt in effigy by the Clemson faithful during his tenure is that they were still mad at former coach Ken Hatfield, whom they blamed for the decline in the program (“Howard built it. Ford tilled it. Hatfield killed it”).  West showed his characteristic lack of class on his way out the door at Memphis, blaming everyone except himself for the school’s dismal performance:

”At some point in time you’ve got to say, ‘We’ve got to help this football program. We’ve got to do the things necessary to make this what we want it or do away with it.”

The irony in this, of course, is that while Memphis doesn’t give football its highest athletic priority West couldn’t get the job done at Clemson which live and dies for football and gives the team truckloads of money and insane support in every other way.  Uh, Tommy, hate to break this to you but it’s not the schools that are the problem here.

Memphis hired former LSU running backs coach/recruiting specialist and Bulldog alum Larry Porter and he’s the perfect choice to sweep up the mess that West left behind.  We look for Memphis to bounce back from their 3-8 season last year, much in the same way that Tommy Bowden was able to go 6-6 and get a Peach Bowl bid with the same talent that West got himself fired with the year before .  Memphis has a lot of work to do this season but against a team with a losing record last year (albeit in the SEC) that isn’t a good betting favorite (1-4 ATS/2-3 SU L3 years) this price is just too high considering the made-to-order scheduling spot.   The Tigers have always held their own in the series from an ATS standpoint (6-6 ATS L12 overall including 4-2 ATS at Starkville) and against a Mississippi State team on a 1-5 ATS run in non-conference games we’ll take the points.

PLAY MEMPHIS +21’ OVER MISSISSIPPI STATE

After a big day of football on Thursday it’s back to baseball for Friday night as the San Francisco Giants take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in an important NL West series.  Oddsbay has you covered no matter the season or sport!

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (ZITO) AT LOS ANGELES DODGERS (BILLINGSLEY)

This series appeared to be all but meaningless a week ago when the San Diego Padres were cruising and padding their divisional lead.  Things have changed dramatically since then and through no real effort of their own the Giants and Dodgers now find themselves back in the midst of a pennant race.  The Padres have lost a season high 7 straight games, and now lead the Giants by only 3 games.  The Dodgers are 9 games out of the division lead, but with a lot of head to head divisional games in the immediate future could pull back into the hunt with a strong showing.

Despite the fact that the Giants and to a lesser extent the Dodgers are back in the NL West race due to the Padres’ late season swoon, neither has been playing particularly good baseball of late.  Both are 5-5 in their last 10 games and haven’t shown much intensity.  Overall in 2010, the Giants have shown a small profit (74-61 +5.2 units) and are essentially a break even team on the road (32-34 -0.3 units).  The Dodgers have turned a small loss in 2010, (70-66 -6.6 units) and a small profit at home despite a solid 41-29 record at Chavez Ravine (+1.6 units).

We’ll back the Giants in this game for several reasons—we’re getting an underdog price, and they’ve got a realistic chance of catching San Diego.  Most significantly, we’ve looked to go against the Dodgers when they face left handers all season long (18-21 -9.8 units) and particularly at home (9-12 -10.2 units).  Barry Zito has had a substandard year so far, but he’s definitely a solid pitcher and we like his chances of putting up a very strong effort here against a Dodgers team that doesn’t do well against southpaws.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (ZITO) +130 OVER LA DODGERS (BILLINGSLEY)

College football is back and we’ve got a play in opening night action between South Carolina and Southern Mississippi.  Make Oddsbay your home for the best free sports betting information all season long!

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT SOUTH CAROLINA—4:30 PM PACIFIC

Williams Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina will be rocking for this nationally televised game and expectiations among the Gamecock faithful are running high.  South Carolina 8 starters on offense and 7 on defense including their brutally talented quarterback Steven Garcia.  Garcia has been the recipient of a lot of ‘tough love’ from head coach Steve Spurrier during his time in Columbia, and he’s matured from an obnoxious punk into a solid SEC quarterback.  Spurrier still isn’t completely happy with his decision making at times, but thankfully the problems are now limited to his *on field* judgment.    The Gamecocks need him to raise his game as they face the toughest schedule in the NCAA this year—in addition to the always tough SEC slate they’ll  play at Clemson in the traditional rivalry game and have a challenging non-conference game at home against a decent Troy team the week before.

If the schedule had been different, we may have looked to play on South Carolina here.  As it stands, however, this looks like a good spot for the underdog.  The Gamecocks have a big home game on deck against Georgia next Saturday, which makes this opener against a Conference USA school something of an afterthought.  At the very least, they’ll be keeping much of the offense ‘under wraps’ so as to not give the Bulldogs any more to work with than they already have.  Look for a lot of rushing plays, particularly with Spurrier already unhappy about Garcia’s tendency to throw interceptions.

Southern Miss may not have the same level of talent as their hosts, but they’re a quality team that has been very good at taking advantage of opposing team’s miscues (+21 turnover margin in the last two years).  We look for the Gamecocks to run a ‘vanilla’ offense here and be content with getting a victory without much regard to the margin.  They’ll be without starting tight end Weslye Saunders for this game—he’s been suspended for an unspecified violation of team rules.  With a tough year ahead starting next week at home versus Georgia, this doesn’t look like a spot where South Carolina will be able to extend a margin against a capable, well coached opponent.

BET SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI +14 OVER SOUTH CAROLINA

Don’t forget to check out our analysis and free NFL football betting pick on Thursday preseason action between the New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans!

Not much of interest in Wednesday’s baseball, so we’ll look ahead to NFL preseason betting action on Thursday as the Tennessee Titans host the New Orleans Saints:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT TENNESSEE TITANS—5:00 PM PACIFIC

The Tennessee Titans are 2-1 ATS/1-2 SU in the 2010 preseason, but once you drill down into those individual performances they’re not as impressive as they look on the surface.  They lost but covered in their first game at Seattle, which was Pete Carroll’s debut as head coach.  They won and covered against Arizona, which looks less impressive in retrospect due to the Cardinals’ issues at quarterback.  Last week they lost to Carolina in a dismal offensive performance—losing outright to a team that has yet to score an offensive touchdown in the preseason isn’t exactly a ‘buy’ sign.

Now they’re a -7’ home favorite against a Saints team that is either 2-1 or 3-0 ATS depending on what price you bet them at in their opening preseason game at New England.  Against the closing line, they’re a perfect 3-0 against the number and 2-1 SU.  Given the performances of both teams so far in the 2010 exhibition campaign that line is hard to figure.  Much may be based on the fact that New Orleans QB Drew Brees isn’t expected to play, but in a preseason situation that’s a huge overcompensation in this price.  Both of his backups are capable, with former Redskins starter Patrick Ramsey #2 on the depth chart and former University of Missouri standout Chase Daniel #3.  Ramsey is probably better suited in a backup role, and he’s looked good in the preseason.  Chase Daniel has also performed well, and has the highest QB rating on the roster—no small feat playing behind the insanely efficient Brees.

Tennessee’s QB situation is far less stable behind starter Vince Young.  Kerry Collins, Chris Simms and Rusty Smith will all likely see action here, and none have been particularly impressive in the preseason.  The Titans’ offensive line is in a state of relative disarray, and they did a horrible job protecting the quarterback against Carolina’s aggressive blitz packages last week.  The mobile Young was sacked four times, Collins twice and Smith once.  Now they play an even better defense off a short week.  With Young not likely to play at all, you’ve got three immobile quarterbacks behind a porous offensive line.  Simms and Smith will likely see most of the playing time—despite a substandard preseason Collins all but has the backup gig in the bag.

The Saints’ defense doesn’t get the respect they deserve, but they’re deep, well coached and aggressive.  They’ll give the Titans fits—and particularly if Smith and Simms are trying to ‘force things’ in an effort to win the #3 job.  Tennessee’s defense is also in rebuilding mode, particularly along the line.  They’ll have a much harder time pressuring either of New Orleans’ cool headed backups.  The Saints do have depth issues at running back, which is why they signed Ladell Betts a couple of weeks ago and he looked decent working behind a real offensive line last week.  Betts will likely get a lot of work here, and should continue to be productive.

New Orleans has been an excellent preseason underdog historically—they’re 30-18 ATS getting points since 1990.  Granted, the dynamic is different now that they’re Superbowl champions but they also have a lot more talent to work with.   The sum total is that we’re getting the better quarterback rotation, the better and deeper offense and defense *and* a full touchdown plus against a team with issues along both the offensive and defensive lines and a pair of relatively immobile quarterbacks.  While it remains to be seen if New Orleans’ coach Sean Payton can translate it to the regular season, the team has looked very focused and determined in the preseason—not always the case with defending champs.  They may have been the underdogs in the Superbowl, but that victory was no fluke and this team is no joke.  Saints win this one outright.

PLAY NEW ORLEANS +7’ OVER TENNESSEE

MLB baseball betting continues on Tuesday and we’ve got a pair of free plays in American League action.  The handicapping team at Oddsbay has been in top form of late with 22 wins in the last 29 plays!!

BOSTON RED SOX (BECKETT) AT BALTIMORE ORIOLES (MATUSZ) 4:05 PM PACIFIC

The Baltimore Orioles have been playing better since Buck Showalter took over as manager, and enter this contest on a three game winning streak having won 6 of their last 10 games.  ‘Better’ should not be mistaken for ‘good’, however, and this looks like a nice opportunity to jump in against the Orioles with a veteran team trying to keep their playoff hopes alive and with a solid starting pitcher in Josh Beckett.  Red Sox dropped 2 of 3 to Tampa Bay over the weekend and with the White Sox and Tampa Bay again on deck they need to get the wins where they can.

Josh Beckett has struggled with injuries this season, and that’s evident in his inflated ERA (6.50).  He looked much better against an admittedly weak hitting Seattle team last time out, and the Orioles should be another made to order opponent as he tries to work back into form.  O’s have lost a ton to right handed pitching this year (34-56 -9.8 units) while the Red Sox have made money against left handers (24-19 +1.6 units).

Baltimore is playing better, but we can’t pass up this opportunity to take a much better team at a reasonable price.

PLAY BOSTON (BECKETT) -135 OVER BALTIMORE (MATUSZ)

LOS ANGELES ANGELS (HAREN) AT SEATTLE MARINERS (HERNANDEZ) 7:10 PM PACIFIC

Felix Hernandez is a very talented right hander and he’s put up solid numbers all season long.  For that reason he’s become a darling of the baseball betting public and is somewhat overvalued.  Despite his very good ERA in all situations they haven’t translated into profits.  YTD Hernandez has a 2.55 ERA, but the Mariners are only 13-15 in his starts for a net loss of -6.2 units.  At home, he’s got a 2.46 ERA but Seattle is only 7-6 in his starts at Safeco Field for a -2.5 unit loss.

He’s had to pitch well to have any hopes of winning because Seattle is dead last in the Major Leagues in most relevant offensive categories including runs scored, runs per game (3.25) and team batting average (.325).  The Angels Dan Haren hasn’t been in great form this year with a 4.45 ERA but looked good in his last outing, pitching 6 innings of 3 hit, 1 ER ball against mighty Tampa Bay.

Mariners are one of the biggest money losers in baseball (52-79 -26.4 units) and the Angels have owned them this year winning 11 of 14 and 6 of 7 in the Jet City.  We’ll take the better team at an underdog price.

PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS (HAREN) +120 OVER SEATTLE (HERNANDEZ)

MLB baseball betting continues on Monday and we’ve got a free play in National League action.  The handicapping team at Oddsbay has been in top form of late with 21 wins in the last 28 plays!!

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (HALLADAY) AT LOS ANGELES DODGERS (KURODA) 7:10 PM PACIFIC

It’ll be a case of ‘addition by subtraction’ in Los Angeles, as ‘designated headache’ Manny Ramirez is on his way to Chicago where he’ll attempt to invigorate the White Sox down the stretch.  Now the Dodgers can return their focus to running down the teams in front of them in the NL West.  The Dodgers have been playing reasonably well of late, winning 6 of their last 10 games despite dropping their last two in a weekend series at Colorado.  The Philadelphia Phillies enter having won two straight and narrowing their deficit behind the NL East leading Atlanta Braves to a mere two games.  The Braves prevailed in Wile E. Coyote fashion on Sunday (and cashed a ticket for us in the process) with a late game comeback that erased a 6-1 Florida lead to give Atlanta a 7-6 win.

Philadelphia’s home record is among the best in baseball, and their road record is reasonably good overall (34-39 -0.9 units) but they’ve been horrible against right handed pitching on the road.  Even with a pair of victories at San Diego over the weekend Philadelphia is 23-25 -6.8 units on the road against right handers.  They’ve also been horrible as a road favorite in this price range (-125 to -150) where they’re 3-11 -12.1 units on the year.   Phillies starting Roy Halladay here and while we’ve got nothing but respect for his abilities he’s been human on the road this season—Halladay has a solid 2.42 ERA away from home but the Phillies have won only 7 of his 12 road outings for a half unit loss.  They’ve also been bad about giving him run support lately—He’s allowed only 3 earned runs in his last three starts, but Philadelphia has scored a mere 7 runs behind him for a 2.3 runs per game average in that span.

Hiroki Kuroda has been very consistent for the home team this season, with a 3.56 ERA and a 3.44 ERA at home.  Dodgers have been very good at home this year (40-27 +2.4 units) and even better against right handers at Chavez Ravine with a 30-15 record good for 10.8 units of profit.  Going against Halladay is never an easy thing to pull the trigger on, but we expect the Dodgers to go on a good run now that they’ve unloaded Man Ram and the statistical matchup favors the home team here.

PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS (KURODA) +125 OVER PHILADELPHIA (HALLADAY)

MLB baseball betting continues on Sunday with a pair of daytime games in the National League.  The handicapping team at Oddsbay will keep you in the chips no matter the season or the sport!

FLORIDA MARLINS (JOHNSON) AT ATLANTA BRAVES (LOWE) 10:35 AM PACIFIC

Josh Johnson is the ace of the rotation and a favorite of the baseball betting public.  He’s not been in particularly good form lately (5.94 ERA in his last three starts) and really he’s a much better pitcher at home than on the road.  Overall it’s hard to argue with a record of 11-5 and a 2.36 ERA, but check out his numbers away from home—his ERA on the year is 3.51 and the Marlins are 4-8 in his starts on the road.  Derek Lowe is far from the best pitcher on the Braves staff, but he does have a serviceable 3.81 ERA at Turner Field and Atlanta has a winning record (8-6) when he takes the mound at home.

This starting pitching dynamic is why this game is pick’em, or at some books the Marlins a slight favorite.  Florida has a decent road record (34-33 +5.7 units) but Atlanta has one of the best home records in baseball (46-19 +16.5 units).  They’ve also punished right handed pitching this year (53-33 +13.1 units) while Florida has lost a ton of money against right handers (38-53 -14.5 units).  With the Phillies just 2 games back heading into Sunday’s action the Braves aren’t in a position to mess around.  Florida is a team that has always given the Braves trouble (Atlanta just 12-11 at Turner Field against them L3 years) but with Johnson struggling we’ll gladly back a very solid home team at a pick’em price.

PLAY ATLANTA (LOWE) -105 OVER FLORIDA (JOHNSON)

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (LILLY) AT COLORADO ROCKIES (HAMMEL) 12:10 PM PACIFIC

Colorado not at their best against left handed starters (27-23 -0.4 units) though at home they’ve turned a small profit against southpaws (15-9 +1.0 unit).  Ted Lilly has looked very good since coming to the Dodgers and has been especially strong in his last three starts—all L.A. wins with a 1.27 ERA and a 2 hit complete game shutout of Colorado at Chavez Ravine in early August.  Still, we’re not excited about the Dodgers YTD performance on the road (28-36 -8.5 units) and Colorado is a very tough place for visiting teams to play.  Rockies are strong at Coors Field this year (43-22 +10.2 units).

The Dodgers have been listless in the second half of the season, and particularly against good teams (15-23 -10 units against teams with winning record in second half of the season) and at home the Rockies definitely qualify.  Colorado is 40-29 +9.9 units and starter Jason Hammel has pitched well against the Dodgers throughout his career with a 2.14 ERA against L.A.  We’ll take the strong home team at a reasonable price.

PLAY COLORADO (HAMMEL) -115 OVER LOS ANGELES DODGERS (LILLY)

NFL football betting is back with Saturday preseason action!  We’ve got the full analysis and a totals play on tonight’s Jacksonville/Tampa Bay game.  Make Oddsbay your home for the best NFL handicapping information all season long!

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
August 28 4:30 PM Pacific

Jacksonville’s head coach Jack Del Rio takes a fairly conservative approach in the regular season, but he has an entirely different philosophy in the NFL preseason—he lets his offense run wild.  Del Rio’s Jaguars have gone OVER in 16 of 22 preseason games.  Both of the Jags’ 2010 games have exceeded the total with ease and we expect the same thing to happen here.

This total is lower that it probably should be due to the low scores involving Tampa Bay this season.  The fact that Bucs’ starting quarterback Josh Freeman is out with an injury is also a factor in keeping the total low.  Tampa’s offensive performance this year isn’t quite what it seems.  In their first game they played Miami in monsoon like conditions in South Florida with heavy rain and gusty wind.  In their second game despite losing Freeman early they beat Kansas City 20-15 with backup quarterbacks Josh Johnson and Rudy Carpenter playing fairly well and both throwing for touchdowns.

It’s also important to note that Jacksonville’s first team offense has been pretty bad this season.  They allowed 16 points to a struggling Philadelphia offense in Week 1 and 24 points to Miami’s first team unit in Week 2.  In other words, they’ll make Tampa Bay’s offense look better than it really is and the Bucs should be able to move the ball and score points with relative ease.  Don’t forget that Jags’ starting quarterback David Garrard hasn’t seen much playing time this preseason, so the OVER appears to be in good shape no matter what kind of minutes the Jacksonville first team offense sees in tonight’s game.  Look for a scoreline similar to Jacksonville’s first two preseason games and another easy OVER.

PLAY TAMPA BAY/JACKSONVILLE OVER 36’