NASCAR racing season starts today with the Daytona 500 and the Oddsbay handicapping team is ready to race! We've got NASCAR betting picks and matchups for today's race and we'll keep you in the 'winner's circle' all season long!
DAYTONA 500--FEBRUARY 20, 2011 10:00 AM PACIFIC
If you're unfamiliar with NASCAR racing don't worry--we're experts at it. Among the Oddsbay handicapping team are a couple of longtime NASCAR handicappers who were some of the first to bet the sport in a serious manner dating back to the early 1990's. There's not much they haven't seen when it comes to NASCAR betting. We'll cover some of the theory behind NASCAR handicapping as the season progresses but today we'll just give a 'quick and dirty' overview of the basics.
The two types of NASCAR wagers that we'll be dealing with most often are the 'to win' wager and matchup wagering. The 'to win' wager is self explanatory--you pick the driver that you think will win the race and if he takes the checkered flag you cash your ticket. Matchup wagers should be very familiar to anyone who has bet on golf--sportsbooks quote a 'head to head' matchup of two drivers and the driver with the best finish wins the bet.
What we usually do with 'to win' wagers is try to select several drivers that have a good chance of winning at favorable prices and split our bet among them. Occasionally we'll put all of our 'eggs in one basket' but more often than not we try to spread it around. Winning a NASCAR race takes a lot of skill and a little luck, so the best driver in the best car doesn't always win. Still, there's so much statistical information to work with that handicapping NASCAR is a lot more than mere guesswork--every practice, qualification session, past race and even off season testing is timed and recorded. From this information we can determine which drivers are better on certain tracks and certain types of tracks.
TO WIN:
Here's how we do 'to win' wagers--we allocate our bet in terms of percentages. So once you determine your stake on a race, you can divvy it up among the drivers according to these percentages. As is the case with every sports betting proposition these prices vary from sportsbook to sportsbook so shop around for the best prices.
A bit of NASCAR terminology--we'll talk about some races (specifically Daytona and Talladega) as being 'restrictor plate' races. What this means is that for these tracks NASCAR mandates the use of a 'restrictor plate' that reduces the amount of air that flows to the carburetor and thus the top speed the cars are capable of reaching. This is done for safety reasons since even with the plates attached NASCAR Sprint Cup cars can reach 210 MPH on the high banked track at Daytona. This is relevant to our handicap as racing on restrictor plate tracks is a skill unto itself and some drivers are simply better at it than others. If you want to learn more about restrictor plates you can do so here.
KEVIN HARVICK: Harvick is the favorite in this race and with good reason--he won the Budwiser Shootout the previous two years, had a top 10 finish this year, took third in the Gatorade Duel qualifying race and won two plate races last season including the summer race on this track (he took 7th in the Daytona 500 last year). Harvick's Richard Childress Racing team has been one of the best on restrictor plate tracks for years. How good is Harvick's #29 car? He didn't practice much at all after qualifying because they *know* its good and don't want to risk a wreck. Restrictor plate races are by their nature wide open affairs but we'll gladly back arguably the best in the business at Daytona at +850.
CLINT BOWYER: Bowyer may not be a 'household name' like Jeff Gordon or Dale Earnhardt, Jr. but he's a solid driver that's demonstrated an ability to win on restrictor plate tracks. Bowyer won at Talledega last year and will use the same chassis in this race that he used there. He's Harvick's RCR Racing teammate and 'teamwork' is crucial in plate racing. In the past 10 plate races he's got the best average finish of any active driver. Part of being a successful driver on plate tracks is having a 'nose for trouble' and more specifically how to avoid it. Bowyer has never had a DNF at Daytona and he's a great value at +1700. Simple case where we're getting value due to his lack of name recognition relative to the superstars of NASCAR.
KURT BUSCH: The elder Busch brother has been somewhat overshadowed by younger sibling Kyle in recent years, but that gives us some good value. Kyle is the second betting favorite (along with Tony Stewart) for this race at +1100 but we like Kurt's experience on plate tracks and his highly underrated teammate Brad Keselowski. Keselowski finished #7 in the 2nd Gatorade Duel but what impressed us most was the way he worked with his brother, unsponsored Brian Keselowski to get him a top 5 finish. If he can do that with a relatively inexperienced and underfunded drafting partner, imagine what he can do with his teammate. All Kurt has done so far this year is win the Budwiser Shootout last Saturday night and win his Gatorade Duel qualification race. In his past 9 races here Kurt Busch has 7 top ten finishes and 5 top 5 finishes. Great value at +1800.
TO WIN BREAKDOWN:
PLAY 50% OF WAGER ON KEVIN HARVICK +850
PLAY 25% OF WAGER ON CLINT BOWYER +1700
PLAY 25% OF WAGER ON KURT BUSCH +1800
MATCHUPS:
One of the reasons that NASCAR betting is so enjoyable and potentially profitable is the wealth of statistical data available on every aspect of driver performance. That's how we handicap matchups--we take recent form, past performance on a specific track, start position, practice times and several other factors of each driver in the matchup. Then we evaluate prices and look for situations where we're getting a good price on a driver with a strong statistical basis for finishing ahead of his matchup opponent. The process is similar to handicapping team sports--we don't necessarily bet on the best teams but look for situations where we're getting good value.
PLAY CLINT BOWYER -125 OVER JIMMIE JOHNSON
PLAY JUAN PABLO MONTOYA +100 OVER KASEY KAHNE
PLAY MATT KENSETH -130 OVER RYAN NEWMAN
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