College Football Free Picks: Georgia at South Carolina

College football betting continues this week and Oddsbay’s handicapping team has you covered! Up today, we’ve got a side and totals play in Saturday SEC action between Georgia and South Carolina. Check back every day for more football action!
GEORGIA AT SOUTH CAROLINA--SEPTEMBER 11 9:00 AM PACIFIC
During the early part of this decade, Mark Richt’s University of Georgia teams were among the best underdogs in college football. The lines have caught up, however, and for the past few years Georgia has been a money loser when getting points. Last season the Bulldogs were just 1-3 ATS as an underdog and in the past two seasons they’re just 2-4 ATS in that role. Now they’re heading into one of the most hostile environments in college football to face a Gamecocks team that has always given them trouble. The Gamecocks haven’t broken through for many outright wins in recent years, but they’ve covered the pointspread the last five times they’ve played Georgia. This year the disparity in talent may be nonexistent or, at the very least, smaller than at any time in the Steve Spurrier era.
As we discussed last week, this is a very important season for Spurrier. We’re not going to suggest he’s on the ‘hot seat’, but there is some pressure for him to get this team up to the next level in SEC competition. Making this challenge more difficult is the fact the Gamecocks face one of the toughest schedules in the NCAA. This means that he needs to take advantage of winnable games—and particularly winnable SEC games. South Carolina plays FCS/1-AA Furman next week and then hits a nasty stretch of schedule with 3 of 4 games on the road and an extremely tough home game against Alabama. With a win over Furman all but certain, a win here would allow the Gamecocks to enter the toughest part of their year with a 3-0 record.
The fact that South Carolina is favored here is a clear indication that the linesmakers respect the overall upgrade in the Gamecocks’ football program under Spurrier. Until now, the Bulldogs have been road favorites in their trips to Columbia ever year in the Mark Richt era. The last time Georgia entered a game against South Carolina at any venue getting points was in 2001, Richt’s first year at the helm. Georgia was only 8-5 SU/5-7 ATS and they could be in for another relatively disappointing year. The Bulldogs’ defense was uncharacteristically porous last season, which resulted in an overhaul of the defensive coaching staff. Georgia returns only 5 starters on defense, with two linemen back. Things are a little better on the offense, with 10 starters returning but they are breaking in a new quarterback as Aaron Murray takes over the job. Murray performed well in Georgia’s opening game, but this will be the redshirt freshman’s first taste of the SEC road—repeating his excellent showing against a tough Gamecocks’ defense will be an entirely different matter than shredding Louisiana-Lafayette at home. Making things even more difficult for the Bulldogs is the suspension of their best wide receiver (and one of the best in college football) A.J. Green, who’ll miss the next three games.
South Carolina has their own suspension issues, with Chris Culliver, Jarriel King, and most significantly starting tight end Weslye Saunders currently under NCAA investigation. Their status should be resolved this week, but the team is prepared to go on without them. At the end of the day the Gamecocks have more weapons on offense, an experienced quarterback in Steven Garcia and the better defense. We look for them to take this game by 10+ points and easily cover the spread. There are still a few places offering this game at -3 as opposed to -3’. Obviously, that extra half point at the ‘key number’ is crucial.
We’ll also look for this game to go UNDER the total. The Bulldogs just don’t have the weapons to trade points with the Gamecocks, and this series has shown a very strong bias to the UNDER. 12 of the last 15 meetings have failed to exceed the total, including 7 of 7 in Columbia.
PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA -3 OVER GEORGIA
PLAY GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA UNDER 49