College Football Betting Free Picks: BYU at Air Force

College football betting continues this week and Oddsbay’s handicapping team has you covered! Up today, we’ve got a play in Saturday Mountain West action between BYU and Air Force. Check back every day for more football action!
BYU AT AIR FORCE—SEPTEMBER 11, 1 PM PACIFIC
BYU beats Air Force every year, and beats them badly. They’re 5-0 SU/ATS against the Falcons since Bronco Mendenhall took over for the marginally competent Gary Crowton and revived the struggling program. Even during Crowton’s disastrous tenure he was 2-2 SU/ATS against Air Force. Overall, they’re on a 6-0 ATS run and a 3-0 ATS run in Colorado Springs. Having grown up in the Beehive State I’ve always followed the BYU program closely, and have done well handicapping games involving the Cougars (as well as the other teams in the Intermountain West region). I’m happy to say that in 2002 and 2003 we were on the right side when the Falcons finally got some revenge against the Cougars. And I’m confident we’ll be on the right side here when Mendenhall’s circa 2010 BYU Cougars rout the Air Force Falcons on the road this weekend.
This game comes down to some very simple concepts—year after year, it’s a matter of talent and tactics. Air Force, being a military academy, has other considerations at play in admitting students other than football skill. BYU simply gets a better level of athletes—this is no disrespect to the kids at Air Force who do things like fly planes and repair jets in their spare time—but in terms of sheer athletic ability there’s no comparison. Tactics are also a problem—although BYU has upgraded their ability to run the football during the Mendenhall era, they still bring one of the best passing attacks in the country. To stop BYU, you need the team speed and size to mount a pass rush and overpower the Cougars decent offensive line (which Air Force doesn’t have) as well as good secondary coverage with safeties that have speed and athleticism to stop them from completing passes (ditto). Making things more difficult is that an option based team just doesn’t have the personnel to even simulate the Coogs’ passing attack in practice.
On defense, BYU isn’t exactly fooled by the Air Force option and we’re not overly impressed with the personnel the Falcons currently have running it. The last time Air Force beat BYU they caught a poorly coached Cougars team under Crowton in a ‘down cycle’, and the Falcons had some exceptional athletes running their option attack (notably QB Chance Harridge). The Cougars have the size and speed on defense to stop the run, and they’re very familiar with the Falcons tactics. Don’t forget that BYU coach Mendenhall was a very good defensive coordinator before taking the top job, and he can stop the Air Force option in his sleep.
BYU is in a ‘sandwich’ situation off a big win over Washington and with a ‘revenge game’ against Florida State on deck. While scheduling spots like this can be good chances to play against a team, that doesn’t look to be the case here. At the price, all we need is for BYU to win this game outright and it’s not like they haven’t faced similar spots before when they mopped the field with Air Force. In 2008 and 2009, they played the Falcons the week before the annual rivalry game with Utah winning and covering both.
The opening games for both teams sure don’t give us pause on a play against these Falcons. We’ve got as much respect for good 1-AA/FCS programs as anyone, but Air Force struggled for a half against a weak lower level program in Northwestern State. The Falcons led by only 3 at the half, and allowed 311 yards of total offense including 249 passing. Considering that Northwestern State went 0-11 SU at the 1-AA/FCS level last year, that’s not a good sign. Air Force did come back to win going away, but if they come out against BYU with the same lack of intensity they’ll be down by 35 at half time. Maybe people are looking at the 65-21 final score and assuming this year’s Falcon option is unstoppable, but my concern is a defense that allowed 21 points to one of the worst teams at the 1-AA/FCS level. BYU didn’t win by much last week, but they were playing an improving Pac 10 foe in Washington with a very talented QB in Jake Locker. Plus, it’s not like they were going to go for the jugular against former BYU QB Steve Sarkisian, who is doing a good job rebuilding the Husky program that Ty Willingham left in shambles. The game meant a lot more to his team, but BYU took care of business and put a ‘W’ in the book.
For some teams, the altitude and atmosphere of Colorado Springs can be a tough venue—but obviously BYU won’t be bothered by either factor playing their home games in the crazed atmosphere of Provo’s LaVell Edwards Stadium roughly 5000 feet above sea level. This is the first time BYU has been an underdog at Air Force since Crowton was coach, and we sure don’t see anything bad about the Cougars or particularly good about the Falcons to justify that price. BYU has won the last three trips to Colorado Springs by an average margin of 16.6 points, and have covered 6 straight in the series. This is a ‘perfect storm’ of one team having a tactical, coaching and personnel advantage that really can’t be overcome. BYU wins by two touchdowns or more.
PLAY BYU +1 OVER AIR FORCE