NFL football betting season is underway with a big day of Saturday preseason action. We've got the full analysis and a side and totals play in the Miami Dolphins/Jacksonville Jaguars game. Make Oddsbay your home for the best NFL handicapping information all season long!
MIAMI DOLPHINS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS—4:00 PM PACIFIC
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been a good preseason NFL betting underdog in their relatively short franchise history—since entering the league in 1995 they’re 18-7 ATS when getting points following a loss/cover at Philadelphia last week. They’re not bad in the favorite role either at 17-17 ATS. More objectively, however, they left a lot of unanswered questions despite last week’s one point loss to the Eagles. The Jags weren’t a particularly good defense to begin with (ranked #23 in total team defense in 2009) but they could be even worse this year. Sure, it’s only the preseason but giving up 28 points to a pitiful Philadelphia Eagles’ offense doesn’t instill us with a lot of confidence nor does their ability to hold an 8 point lead in the fourth quarter.
Miami is also a very good preseason underdog with a 26-14 ATS record since 1990. It’s hard to take much from their game against Tampa Bay last week—their first team offense was definitely out of sync, but the driving rains and wind for most of the game was the real factor in the Dolphins 10-7 win. As is usually the case in Florida this time of the year, there’s a chance of rain in the forecast but they’re the typical late afternoon ‘scattered thunderstorms’ and not the monsoon witnessed in Miami last weekend.
The Dolphins’ offense was very unhappy with their performance, and has made a better showing and more efficiency the goal for this week. Here’s what starting QB Chad Henne had to say:
``We'll get 'em the next time. I think every time we step out there on the field, we want to dominate. We want to win as an offense. We didn't get it done with the first team.”
That’s the Dolphins mindset, and they should be able to put some points on the board against a Jacksonville team with a rebuilding defense (coach Jack Del Rio has called it a ‘work in progress’ that has ‘a long way to go’). The Jags’ offense has a tendency to open things up in the preseason, and has a track record of being able to put points on the board. Jacksonville is now OVER in 15 of 21 preseason games in the Del Rio era.
The problem here is that they couldn’t beat Philadelphia playing that way, and they’re facing a much better offense here that is out to ‘make a statement’ following a bad first game performance. And unlike Philadelphia—who tried to ‘make a statement’ with their first team offense against Cincinnati on Friday night—the Dolphins have the talent to do it. More importantly, the Jags don’t have the defense to stop them. Look for the Dolphins to win outright in a game that goes OVER the total.
PLAY MIAMI +2 OVER JACKSONVILLE
PLAY MIAMI/JACKSONVILLE OVER 36
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