NFL football betting season is underway and preseason week 1 continues tonight as the Detroit Lions play the Pittsburgh Steelers. We've got the full analysis and betting selection. Make Oddsbay your home for the best NFL handicapping information all season long!
DETROIT LIONS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS—4:30 PM PACIFIC
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Detroit Lions open the NFL preseason at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh on Saturday and while the recent history of these two teams couldn’t be more disparate this is a spot where the pro football betting enthusiast needs to keep in mind that this isn’t the regular season. First, let’s talk about the Pittsburgh Steelers—hard to gain much of a feel for Mike Tomlin’s emphasis on winning preseason games (or lack thereof) from the team’s recent record. Pittsburgh was 3-1 ATS in the 2009 preseason but just 1-3 ATS in 2008. In the 2009 regular season, Pittsburgh finished 9-7 SU and a dismal 5-10-1 ATS. They lost 6 games outright as favorites, the most in the league. Despite the disappointment of finishing out of the playoffs last year, the Steelers return 21 of 22 starters with the exception of suspended QB Ben Roethlisberger. We’ll talk more about him in a moment. That returning starter figure is fine and good, but for the purpose of handicapping the preseason it’s actually a negative—keep in mind that the Steelers are a veteran team so it’s crucial to keep that nucleus healthy going into the year.
Which brings us to the Southern sorority girl’s favorite NFL player, ‘Big’ Ben Roethlisberger. Hopefully the former Superbowl MVP has realized that most grown men outgrow ‘trolling for skank’ in college bars by their early to mid 20’s. At the very least, he’s hopefully realized that a high profile pro athlete can’t put himself in positions like he has repeatedly. Roethlisberger is suspended for the first six games of the regular season, which could be ‘commuted’ to a four game suspension should he behave himself. Obviously, forcing his team to play at least a month without a starting quarterback puts the Steelers at a disadvantage in the regular season and it also impacts their preparation in the preseason.
The way it usually works in preseason football is like this—the starting QB comes in for a few plays, the backup plays most of the first half and starts the third quarter and the #3 guy takes it the rest of the way. If there’s a situation like Carolina—where there’s no definite #1 QB—they may even bring in the #4 guy for some mop up work. That’s why those of us who have done well handicapping preseason NFL action pay so much attention to quarterback rotations.
So consider the situation that Pittsburgh’s quarterback rotation is in this preseason and particularly tomorrow—its completely screwed up due to the Roethlisberger suspension. ‘Big Ben’ is eligible to play in exhibition games and he’s publicly said that he wants to play the entire game. The chances of that happening are less than the proverbial ‘slim and none’. In theory, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get Roethlisberger some reps but with the suspension looming there’s really no purpose to get him ‘game ready’ when he’ll be out of action for up to six games. Word is that he’s done very little work with the first team offense in training camp, and at this point—keeping in mind his familiarity with the mostly intact starting lineup—there’s no real reason to give him practice time or playing time.
It also means that for the Steelers it’s necessary to treat their #2 quarterback, veteran Byron Leftwich like he’s the starter as it relates to the preseason rotation. Leftwich is a solid pro and will make the best of the situation but he’ll probably get the hook early. Mike Tomlin has already said that #3 QB Dennis Dixon—who many think may be the quarterback of the future in the Steel City—will play most of the game. Dixon is a great athlete with a ton of talent and versatility (think Kordell Stewart era Steelers) who can beat you in the air and on the ground. He’s got limited NFL game experience, however, and could be prone to mistakes. There’s even a chance that the #4 guy on the depth chart Charlie Batch—who may not be on the roster when the season starts—could also see some playing time.
The Lions have no questions at quarterback, and word is that Matthew Stafford will see a reasonable amount of playing time here. Stafford has all of the talent in the world and could become an elite level NFL quarterback. Detroit signed veteran Shaun Hill in the off season, and now they’ve got one of the better #2 quarterbacks in the league. Stafford and Hill should play most of the game.
Finally, the Steelers know what the deal is with the 2010 preseason—get to the regular season with everyone healthy and try to win some games to put themselves in a decent position when Roethlisberger returns. For that reason, preseason wins and losses are essentially irrelevant this year. That’s not the case for the Lions and head coach Jim Schwartz as they try to turn around a culture that has grown accustomed to losing. Every win is important for this team even in preseason—that’s why the Lions are 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS in preseason play during the last two years. The victory here is more important to them and the way they’ll approach player rotation will demonstrate that fact. Lions win outright.
PLAY DETROIT +2’ OVER PITTSBURGH
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