World Cup Betting Team Handicaps: Brazil

With the World Cup right around the corner, we’ll be handicapping the field and assessing their chances of winning the tournament. Most importantly, we’ll look at the World Cup betting odds to determine whether each team is a good value. We’ll be starting with the favored teams and working our way down the list over the next couple of weeks. After that we’ll recommend specific betting positions on futures and prop bets, and once the tournament starts we’ll have World Cup betting free picks every day. Make Oddsbay your home for the best soccer betting free picks and handicapping information anywhere!
To the surprise of no one, Brazil is one of the top favorites to win the 2010 World Cup. As usual, they’re loaded with talent and have had more success in the event than any other country. Brazil played in the first World Cup in 1930, and they’ve played in every one since making them the only country to compete in all eighteen tournaments. They’ve also won the World Cup five times (1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002) and have played in three of the last four finals.
Talent is never a problem with Brazil, but this vintage has shown a good deal of cohesion as a team. They won the 2009 Confederations Cup without much difficulty, and will field essentially the same team this summer. A big question concerning Brazil is their ability to deal with the weight of expectations—anything less than winning the tournament would be considered a disappointment by their fans. As superstar midfielder Kaka admitted in a recent interview, this can be significant burden on the team:Brazil will also have to face a fairly difficult draw in the group stage. They’ll play in Group G along with a very good Portugal team, an Ivory Coast team considered the best African side and North Korea which is a huge question mark. Portugal, in particular, could be a very tough opponent as quite a few sharp handicappers have tipped them as arguably the best soccer betting value in the entire competition. The most likely scenario is for Brazil and Portugal to both advance to the knockout stage, but Ivory Coast certainly has the ability to pull off the surprise and advance from the group stage.
The big names on the Brazil squad are a ‘who’s who’ of International soccer starting at the very back with world class goalkeeper Julio Cesar. Daniel Alves and Maicon will anchor the defense, with slick playmakers Kaka and Ronaldinho in midfield. Luis Fabiano and Robinho are Brazil’s top scoring threats. Team manager Dunga has come under some criticism after Brazil essentially ‘phoned in’ the CONMEBOL qualifying games for World Cup play, where the team won only 9 of 18 games.
The CONMEBOL performance is a good example of why Brazil is overvalued from a betting standpoint. As is the case in any tournament in any sport, you have to actually play the games. You don’t get anything for having ‘the most talent’ of any team in the field. Brazil often plays with a lack of focus and/or intensity, and that results in a team with the talent to dominate ‘playing down’ to the level of less skilled opponents. So much of high level soccer—like most other sports—is mental, and Brazil simply lacks the mental and emotional toughness necessary to win with such a competitive field. They have enough talent that they can sometimes get away with this, but with the rest of the world catching up in terms of skill that’s not something I’d want to bet on this year.
Ultimately, there’s not much that can be done with Brazil from a futures wagering standpoint. If you’re looking to back a favorite I’d much rather take Spain +410 than Brazil +480. On the Group G prop bets, they’re not much of a value to win the group (-185) and you’re much better off taking the value price with Portugal +408. And while the thought of Brazil not advancing from the group stage seems unthinkable, a bet on that eventuality is a nice overlay. Brazil not to advance is priced at +520, which means that theoretical breakeven is somewhere around 16%. With Brazil’s unfocused effort in World Cup qualifying and such a tough group seeding the true odds of not advancing are at least 25% if not higher.
A good measure of Brazil’s potential will be their opening game performance against North Korea. It’s a game they should dominate, but if they struggle or if North Korea is able to keep it close it could be a warning sign of trouble ahead. Even if they rout North Korea, however, it shouldn’t be considered a ‘buy’ sign on the team. Every soccer fan has heard the old yarn that ‘The British invented soccer, but the Brazilians perfected it’. From a historical standpoint that might be true, but if Brazil comes to the World Cup 2010 believing their own press clippings they could be in for a monumental disappointment. Even if the Brazilians did ‘perfect’ the sport, the rest of the world is catching up and a qualitative advantage in raw talent is no longer enough to win a championship.