NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT TENNESSEE TITANS—5:00 PM PACIFIC

The Tennessee Titans are 2-1 ATS/1-2 SU in the 2010 preseason, but once you drill down into those individual performances they’re not as impressive as they look on the surface.  They lost but covered in their first game at Seattle, which was Pete Carroll’s debut as head coach.  They won and covered against Arizona, which looks less impressive in retrospect due to the Cardinals’ issues at quarterback.  Last week they lost to Carolina in a dismal offensive performance—losing outright to a team that has yet to score an offensive touchdown in the preseason isn’t exactly a ‘buy’ sign.

Now they’re a -7’ home favorite against a Saints team that is either 2-1 or 3-0 ATS depending on what price you bet them at in their opening preseason game at New England.  Against the closing line, they’re a perfect 3-0 against the number and 2-1 SU.  Given the performances of both teams so far in the 2010 exhibition campaign that line is hard to figure.  Much may be based on the fact that New Orleans QB Drew Brees isn’t expected to play, but in a preseason situation that’s a huge overcompensation in this price.  Both of his backups are capable, with former Redskins starter Patrick Ramsey #2 on the depth chart and former University of Missouri standout Chase Daniel #3.  Ramsey is probably better suited in a backup role, and he’s looked good in the preseason.  Chase Daniel has also performed well, and has the highest QB rating on the roster—no small feat playing behind the insanely efficient Brees.

Tennessee’s QB situation is far less stable behind starter Vince Young.  Kerry Collins, Chris Simms and Rusty Smith will all likely see action here, and none have been particularly impressive in the preseason.  The Titans’ offensive line is in a state of relative disarray, and they did a horrible job protecting the quarterback against Carolina’s aggressive blitz packages last week.  The mobile Young was sacked four times, Collins twice and Smith once.  Now they play an even better defense off a short week.  With Young not likely to play at all, you’ve got three immobile quarterbacks behind a porous offensive line.  Simms and Smith will likely see most of the playing time—despite a substandard preseason Collins all but has the backup gig in the bag.

The Saints’ defense doesn’t get the respect they deserve, but they’re deep, well coached and aggressive.  They’ll give the Titans fits—and particularly if Smith and Simms are trying to ‘force things’ in an effort to win the #3 job.  Tennessee’s defense is also in rebuilding mode, particularly along the line.  They’ll have a much harder time pressuring either of New Orleans’ cool headed backups.  The Saints do have depth issues at running back, which is why they signed Ladell Betts a couple of weeks ago and he looked decent working behind a real offensive line last week.  Betts will likely get a lot of work here, and should continue to be productive.

New Orleans has been an excellent preseason underdog historically—they’re 30-18 ATS getting points since 1990.  Granted, the dynamic is different now that they’re Superbowl champions but they also have a lot more talent to work with.   The sum total is that we’re getting the better quarterback rotation, the better and deeper offense and defense *and* a full touchdown plus against a team with issues along both the offensive and defensive lines and a pair of relatively immobile quarterbacks.  While it remains to be seen if New Orleans’ coach Sean Payton can translate it to the regular season, the team has looked very focused and determined in the preseason—not always the case with defending champs.  They may have been the underdogs in the Superbowl, but that victory was no fluke and this team is no joke.  Saints win this one outright.

PLAY NEW ORLEANS +7’ OVER TENNESSEE

                

BOSTON RED SOX (BECKETT) AT BALTIMORE ORIOLES (MATUSZ) 4:05 PM PACIFIC

The Baltimore Orioles have been playing better since Buck Showalter took over as manager, and enter this contest on a three game winning streak having won 6 of their last 10 games.  ‘Better’ should not be mistaken for ‘good’, however, and this looks like a nice opportunity to jump in against the Orioles with a veteran team trying to keep their playoff hopes alive and with a solid starting pitcher in Josh Beckett.  Red Sox dropped 2 of 3 to Tampa Bay over the weekend and with the White Sox and Tampa Bay again on deck they need to get the wins where they can.

Josh Beckett has struggled with injuries this season, and that’s evident in his inflated ERA (6.50).  He looked much better against an admittedly weak hitting Seattle team last time out, and the Orioles should be another made to order opponent as he tries to work back into form.  O’s have lost a ton to right handed pitching this year (34-56 -9.8 units) while the Red Sox have made money against left handers (24-19 +1.6 units).

Baltimore is playing better, but we can’t pass up this opportunity to take a much better team at a reasonable price.

PLAY BOSTON (BECKETT) -135 OVER BALTIMORE (MATUSZ)

LOS ANGELES ANGELS (HAREN) AT SEATTLE MARINERS (HERNANDEZ) 7:10 PM PACIFIC

Felix Hernandez is a very talented right hander and he’s put up solid numbers all season long.  For that reason he’s become a darling of the baseball betting public and is somewhat overvalued.  Despite his very good ERA in all situations they haven’t translated into profits.  YTD Hernandez has a 2.55 ERA, but the Mariners are only 13-15 in his starts for a net loss of -6.2 units.  At home, he’s got a 2.46 ERA but Seattle is only 7-6 in his starts at Safeco Field for a -2.5 unit loss.

He’s had to pitch well to have any hopes of winning because Seattle is dead last in the Major Leagues in most relevant offensive categories including runs scored, runs per game (3.25) and team batting average (.325).  The Angels Dan Haren hasn’t been in great form this year with a 4.45 ERA but looked good in his last outing, pitching 6 innings of 3 hit, 1 ER ball against mighty Tampa Bay.

Mariners are one of the biggest money losers in baseball (52-79 -26.4 units) and the Angels have owned them this year winning 11 of 14 and 6 of 7 in the Jet City.  We’ll take the better team at an underdog price.

PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS (HAREN) +120 OVER SEATTLE (HERNANDEZ)

                

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (HALLADAY) AT LOS ANGELES DODGERS (KURODA) 7:10 PM PACIFIC

It’ll be a case of ‘addition by subtraction’ in Los Angeles, as ‘designated headache’ Manny Ramirez is on his way to Chicago where he’ll attempt to invigorate the White Sox down the stretch.  Now the Dodgers can return their focus to running down the teams in front of them in the NL West.  The Dodgers have been playing reasonably well of late, winning 6 of their last 10 games despite dropping their last two in a weekend series at Colorado.  The Philadelphia Phillies enter having won two straight and narrowing their deficit behind the NL East leading Atlanta Braves to a mere two games.  The Braves prevailed in Wile E. Coyote fashion on Sunday (and cashed a ticket for us in the process) with a late game comeback that erased a 6-1 Florida lead to give Atlanta a 7-6 win.

Philadelphia’s home record is among the best in baseball, and their road record is reasonably good overall (34-39 -0.9 units) but they’ve been horrible against right handed pitching on the road.  Even with a pair of victories at San Diego over the weekend Philadelphia is 23-25 -6.8 units on the road against right handers.  They’ve also been horrible as a road favorite in this price range (-125 to -150) where they’re 3-11 -12.1 units on the year.   Phillies starting Roy Halladay here and while we’ve got nothing but respect for his abilities he’s been human on the road this season—Halladay has a solid 2.42 ERA away from home but the Phillies have won only 7 of his 12 road outings for a half unit loss.  They’ve also been bad about giving him run support lately—He’s allowed only 3 earned runs in his last three starts, but Philadelphia has scored a mere 7 runs behind him for a 2.3 runs per game average in that span.

Hiroki Kuroda has been very consistent for the home team this season, with a 3.56 ERA and a 3.44 ERA at home.  Dodgers have been very good at home this year (40-27 +2.4 units) and even better against right handers at Chavez Ravine with a 30-15 record good for 10.8 units of profit.  Going against Halladay is never an easy thing to pull the trigger on, but we expect the Dodgers to go on a good run now that they’ve unloaded Man Ram and the statistical matchup favors the home team here.

PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS (KURODA) +125 OVER PHILADELPHIA (HALLADAY)

                

FLORIDA MARLINS (JOHNSON) AT ATLANTA BRAVES (LOWE) 10:35 AM PACIFIC

Josh Johnson is the ace of the rotation and a favorite of the baseball betting public.  He’s not been in particularly good form lately (5.94 ERA in his last three starts) and really he’s a much better pitcher at home than on the road.  Overall it’s hard to argue with a record of 11-5 and a 2.36 ERA, but check out his numbers away from home—his ERA on the year is 3.51 and the Marlins are 4-8 in his starts on the road.  Derek Lowe is far from the best pitcher on the Braves staff, but he does have a serviceable 3.81 ERA at Turner Field and Atlanta has a winning record (8-6) when he takes the mound at home.

This starting pitching dynamic is why this game is pick’em, or at some books the Marlins a slight favorite.  Florida has a decent road record (34-33 +5.7 units) but Atlanta has one of the best home records in baseball (46-19 +16.5 units).  They’ve also punished right handed pitching this year (53-33 +13.1 units) while Florida has lost a ton of money against right handers (38-53 -14.5 units).  With the Phillies just 2 games back heading into Sunday’s action the Braves aren’t in a position to mess around.  Florida is a team that has always given the Braves trouble (Atlanta just 12-11 at Turner Field against them L3 years) but with Johnson struggling we’ll gladly back a very solid home team at a pick’em price.

PLAY ATLANTA (LOWE) -105 OVER FLORIDA (JOHNSON)

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (LILLY) AT COLORADO ROCKIES (HAMMEL) 12:10 PM PACIFIC

Colorado not at their best against left handed starters (27-23 -0.4 units) though at home they’ve turned a small profit against southpaws (15-9 +1.0 unit).  Ted Lilly has looked very good since coming to the Dodgers and has been especially strong in his last three starts—all L.A. wins with a 1.27 ERA and a 2 hit complete game shutout of Colorado at Chavez Ravine in early August.  Still, we’re not excited about the Dodgers YTD performance on the road (28-36 -8.5 units) and Colorado is a very tough place for visiting teams to play.  Rockies are strong at Coors Field this year (43-22 +10.2 units).

The Dodgers have been listless in the second half of the season, and particularly against good teams (15-23 -10 units against teams with winning record in second half of the season) and at home the Rockies definitely qualify.  Colorado is 40-29 +9.9 units and starter Jason Hammel has pitched well against the Dodgers throughout his career with a 2.14 ERA against L.A.  We’ll take the strong home team at a reasonable price.

PLAY COLORADO (HAMMEL) -115 OVER LOS ANGELES DODGERS (LILLY)

                

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
August 28 4:30 PM Pacific

Jacksonville’s head coach Jack Del Rio takes a fairly conservative approach in the regular season, but he has an entirely different philosophy in the NFL preseason—he lets his offense run wild.  Del Rio’s Jaguars have gone OVER in 16 of 22 preseason games.  Both of the Jags’ 2010 games have exceeded the total with ease and we expect the same thing to happen here.

This total is lower that it probably should be due to the low scores involving Tampa Bay this season.  The fact that Bucs’ starting quarterback Josh Freeman is out with an injury is also a factor in keeping the total low.  Tampa’s offensive performance this year isn’t quite what it seems.  In their first game they played Miami in monsoon like conditions in South Florida with heavy rain and gusty wind.  In their second game despite losing Freeman early they beat Kansas City 20-15 with backup quarterbacks Josh Johnson and Rudy Carpenter playing fairly well and both throwing for touchdowns.

It’s also important to note that Jacksonville’s first team offense has been pretty bad this season.  They allowed 16 points to a struggling Philadelphia offense in Week 1 and 24 points to Miami’s first team unit in Week 2.  In other words, they’ll make Tampa Bay’s offense look better than it really is and the Bucs should be able to move the ball and score points with relative ease.  Don’t forget that Jags’ starting quarterback David Garrard hasn’t seen much playing time this preseason, so the OVER appears to be in good shape no matter what kind of minutes the Jacksonville first team offense sees in tonight’s game.  Look for a scoreline similar to Jacksonville’s first two preseason games and another easy OVER.

PLAY TAMPA BAY/JACKSONVILLE OVER 36’

                

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS –5:00 PM PACIFIC

Two teams that have been awful in preseason play in the past few years meet in Kansas City on Friday night.  The Eagles are 3-11 ATS in the last three preseasons, and Kansas City is 1-13 ATS.  Despite the struggles of both teams, we’ve got several strong reasons to play on the hometown Chiefs in this spot.  In both cases, the poor preseason performance is nothing new and reflects the longterm philosophies of both teams.  The Chiefs are 11-27 ATS in preseason play since 1993, while Philadelphia is 10-26 in that same timeframe.  While we really don’t see Andy Reid all of a sudden putting a greater focus on preseason football, we think that second year Chiefs coach Todd Haley might want to start winning in August as he looks to rebuild the team’s tradition of success.

Kansas City is 0-2 SU in the 2010 preseason while Philadelphia is 1-1, and everyone knows that 0-2 teams are strong percentage plays in their third preseason game.  While the Chiefs haven’t been much of a team lately, we’re not really sure why the Eagles are favored on the road here.  Dating back to 1993, the Eagles are 0-4 SU and ATS as a road favorite in preseason.  They sure don’t fit the profile of a team that should be a road favorite in preseason play, such as San Francisco against Indianapolis in Week 1.  There you had a team with a coach trying to win against the Colts who are notorious for not caring about preseason wins and losses.  The only real explanation for this price is that linesmakers are reflecting a public sentiment based on the regular season performance of both teams during recent years, and that’s a very dangerous mistake in preseason handicapping.

There have been signs of life from the Kansas City offense in the first two games of the season, even if they haven’t really translated into points on the scoreboard.  The Chiefs have outgained both opponents in 2010, including a 336 yard effort against Tampa Bay last week with 24 first downs.  Matt Cassell was a solid 14 for 19 against the Bucs.  On the other side of the ball, the Philadelphia quarterback rotation is a mess with a starter in Kevin Kolb that has been struggling in his first games as the #1 guy.  Behind him there’s the erratic and interception prone Michael Vick and the equally inconsistent Kevin Kafka.  The Chiefs will have a pair of solid NFL quarterbacks for most of the game with Cassell and Brody Croyle.  Croyle may not be the guy you want leading your team in the regular season, but he’s perfectly adequate for preseason play and better than any quarterback on the Eagles’ roster.

The Philadelphia defense has been very vulnerable this year, allowing 49 points in two games.  We look for Haley to make a strong effort to get a win here, and he’s got the quarterbacking talent to riddle a porous Eagles secondary.  Chiefs win outright as small priced home underdogs.

PLAY KANSAS CITY +2’ OVER PHILADELPHIA

                

The Philadelphia Phillies have been unable to capitalize on the situation when the Atlanta Braves lose, and yesterday was another example of that.  The Braves blew a nine run lead against the Colorado Rockies in Denver, but the Phillies were kept in check by lefthander J.A. Happ who outdueled Philadelphia ace Roy Halladay for a 3-2 win as a huge +310 underdog.  Happ is a fair to middling pitcher, but the Phillies made him look like a Cy Young candidate.  They’ve had a tendency toward doing that against left handers this year and Houston will be starting another southpaw today.

Houston got off to the worst start in franchise history and never really recovered.  They started to shed high priced contracts by dealing off veterans midseason (including Roy Oswalt, who is now a member of the Phillies).  The general public has been largely oblivious to the Astros improved play since midseason, but they’ve shown some life as a lot of younger prospects get significant playing time. Since the first of August the Astros are now 13-10 +9.6 units and are 9-9 +6.1 units against teams with winning records in the second half of the season.

Let’s return to Philadelphia’s struggle against lefthanded pitching this year—the Phillies are now 19-17 -7.8 after yesterday’s -350 loss with Halladay on the hill.  At home, their numbers are even worse against southpaws at 9-10 -10.6 units.  Considering their overall success at PNC Park (40-24) that’s significant.  Also significant is their diminished offensive numbers against lefthanders at home—they score on average 1.5 runs less against lefthanders than against right-handers.

Wandy Rodriguez has pitched very well in his last three outings, though he’s got very little run support—he’s allowed a total of 4 ER in these games with a 25-5 strikeout to walk ratio and an ERA of 1.80.  If the Phillies could only muster two runs against Happ on Wednesday they run the risk of being shut down by the much better Rodriguez.  Kyle Kendrick has a 5.46 ERA at home and a 6.32 ERA in his last three starts.

For whatever reason, the Astros have given the Phillies fits in recent years.  Houston is now 3-0 +7.1 units at PNC Park this year and 6-4 +7.4 units in Philadelphia’s yard over the last three years.  We’ve got the better pitcher in a favorable matchup situation and a great price and with that we’ll back the Astros to continue being a thorn in the side of the Phillies.

PLAY HOUSTON (RODRIGUEZ) +160 OVER PHILADELPHIA (KENDRICK)

                

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS 5:00 PM PACIFIC

By now everyone knows that the Indianapolis Colts couldn’t care less about their preseason wins and losses.  That’s clearly evident in the Indy preseason ATS record which is downright pitiful—4-11 straight up and against the spread over the last three NFL preseasons.   Ouch.  We’re aware that playing ON 0-2 preseason teams has been a long term profitable situation, and an even better situation has been 0-2 teams off of a 13+ point loss which has hit for 63.6%. Indianapolis just doesn’t work in this type of play—usually teams that fit this criterion are bad teams that don’t want to go into the regular season with a winless preseason.  The Colts are in no way a “bad” team and they know this—they have the utmost confidence in their personnel and preparation and will be ready to go on Sunday, September 12 when the games start to count.  They just don’t care about preseason wins and losses.

In theory, Green Bay could be a ‘go against’ here and they are in a rough ATS situation–they’re 2-12 ATS against an opponent off of two preseason losses.  But as we noted before, those rules just don’t apply to Indy.   Indy does have a couple more days of preparation while the Packers are off a short week, but in our view this doesn’t matter.  The Packers will look to get their first team offense in high gear and the result should be a Green Bay victory by a touchdown or more over a Colts team that’ll be going through the motions and trying to keep everyone healthy in advance of the regular season.  Since Aaron Rodgers took over at the starting QB position for Brett Favre, the Packers have let him air it out in preseason and it’ll be more of that here.  For that reason, the Packers are OVER in 9 of their last 10 preseason games.

PLAY GREEN BAY -3’ OVER INDIANAPOLIS
PLAY GREEN BAY/INDIANAPOLIS OVER 44’

                

TAMPA BAY RAYS (NIEMANN) AT LOS ANGELES ANGELS (HAREN) 3:35 PM PACIFIC

We cashed a pair of baseball betting plays on Tuesday and we’ll come right back with one of the same teams we used then. The Tampa Bay Rays have been in a fierce battle with the New York Yankees for the American League East lead all season long, and they just may be getting hot at the right time of the season.  Despite the fact that they’ve won 8 of 10 they haven’t been able to shake the Yankees, and with the Bronx Bombers winning on Tuesday as well the two teams are still tied.  The Rays have been excellent on the road all season long, with a record of 39-24 +10.7 units.

As we noted yesterday, the Los Angeles Angels may be the most disappointing team in baseball.  They were expected to contend for the AL West crown but got off to a slow start and have never really recovered.  They made a run mid-summer but have since reverted back to their usual mediocre ways.  The Angels have lost 7 of 10 and have slipped behind Oakland into third place in the division 10 games back of the first place Texas Rangers.  They’ve been awful when facing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season—after Tuesday’s loss they’re 7-19 for a -11.2 unit loss!

On balance, we like Dan Haren but he just hasn’t been able to get out of his own way this year.  It had been hoped that a move to the American League would revitalize the veteran right hander but he’s been unimpressive since coming over from Arizona.  Haren has a 4.55 ERA for the year and his teams have lost 18 of his 27 starts.  He’s off a horrible 7 run 11 hit outing at Minnesota in his last start.  Jeff Niemann isn’t exactly a household name but he’s been very solid this season—he brings a 3.12 YTD ERA into this game and more importantly the Rays have won 17 of his 22 starts including 9 of 10 on the road.

The relative name recognition of the starting pitchers is giving us a nice price in this game, and we’ll gladly back the much better team as they need to keep winning to match the Yankees’ pace atop the AL East.

PLAY TAMPA BAY (NIEMANN) +110 OVER LA ANGELS (HAREN)

                

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUALIFYING GAME
BSC YOUNG BOYS AT TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR –AUGUST 25, 11:45 AM PACIFIC

Tottenham Hotspur’s return to Champions League play didn’t go like they’d hoped in the first leg of their aggregate goal series against Swiss side BSC Young Boys.  Despite being heavily favored over the host team, the Young Boys scored four minutes in and within the first 30 minutes of play opened up a 3-0 advantage.  Tottenham recovered in the second half to slice the final margin to 3-2 which puts them in good shape to advance with a strong victory at home, but the fact they lost at all bordered on shocking.

Since ‘away goals’ are the primary tie breaker in international soccer, Tottenham is well positioned to advance.  More importantly, they’re well positioned to reassert their dominance of a team they should have defeated easily the first time around.  Basically, Tottenham was stunned by the quick start of their opponents in the opening leg but don’t look for a repeat when action shifts to London’s White Hart Lane on Wednesday.

Despite losing the opening leg, Tottenham team manager Harry Redknapp remains confident his team will advance:

“That was a great defeat in the end, if there is such a thing as a great defeat. At 3-0 we were out of it. We were in desperate trouble, so full credit to the lads, we’ve come back. Now we need to win at home and it gives us a great chance.”

“It will be a great night, the atmosphere will be amazing. But it will be tough. Our plan is to get after them at White Hart Lane. It’ll be a fantastic crowd, great atmosphere, we’re at home. We have to win the game. If we win the game, we have a great chance to go through, obviously, with the two away goals.”

Look for Tottenham Hotspur to press the attack from the outset and win by a wide enough margin that the away goal tally doesn’t matter.  Their defense isn’t great to begin with, however, and we fully expect the Young Boys to score at least once on a counter.  Ultimately, Tottenham should win going away but we don’t have any interest in laying the -2 goal handicap or taking the home team at -425 on the moneyline.  The best value play looks to be the OVER 3 goals, which is a reasonable -128 at Pinnacle.  With considerable pressure on the English Premier League side we expect them to tally at least three goals on their own.

PLAY TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR/BSC YOUNG BOYS OVER 3 -128